🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 25,848 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Westminster
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 81 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 85.7% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 60% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 80% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 75% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | — |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 100% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | — |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 50% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | — |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | — |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | — |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 100% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Westminster. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Conservation Area (63 days). Slowest: Householder (124 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Listed Building | 489 | 90.4% | 112 d (16 wk) | 7–340 d | Filter ▸ |
| Full / Major | 423 | 86.8% | 120 d (17 wk) | 14–360 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 213 | 81.2% | 70 d (10 wk) | 5–341 d | Filter ▸ |
| Householder | 116 | 82.8% | 124 d (18 wk) | 16–365 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area | 96 | 92.7% | 63 d (9 wk) | 2–365 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development | 30 | 73.3% | 102 d (15 wk) | 9–298 d | ✕ clear |
| Prior Approval | 9 | 66.7% | 70 d (10 wk) | 48–112 d | Filter ▸ |
| Change of Use (low sample) | 6 | 66.7% | 69 d (10 wk) | 48–110 d | Filter ▸ |
| Reserved Matters (low sample) | 2 | 50% | 54 d (8 wk) | 15–92 d | Filter ▸ |
ⓘ Month-by-month stats above are filtered to Lawful Development only. The table above always shows all types so you can compare.
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 4 |
75%
|
43d (~6wk) | → February | 17–54d |
| October | 7 |
85.7%
|
123d (~18wk) | → February | 92–157d |
| November | 10 |
60%
|
97d (~14wk) | → February | 62–122d |
| December | 5 |
80%
|
63d (~9wk) | → February | 41–81d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 9 | 77.8% | 88 |
| Tuesday | 5 | 80% | 116 |
| Wednesday | 5 | 40% | 101 |
| Thursday | 6 | 100% | 124 |
| Friday | 5 | 60% | 88 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
25,848 dated decisions where both received_date and decision_type are known. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.