🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 25,848 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 City of London
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 86 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 92% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 89.7% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 87.6% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 83.8% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 80% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | — |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 100% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 85.7% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 57.1% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 75% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 78.6% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at City of London. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Lawful Development (47 days). Slowest: Listed Building (101 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Householder | 944 | 85% | 65 d (9 wk) | 16–317 d | ✕ clear |
| Full / Major | 759 | 67.2% | 93 d (13 wk) | 11–365 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development | 540 | 82.4% | 47 d (7 wk) | 0–330 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area | 229 | 85.2% | 49 d (7 wk) | 1–365 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 199 | 59.3% | 93 d (13 wk) | 27–349 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval | 162 | 61.7% | 50 d (7 wk) | 9–345 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building | 125 | 95.2% | 101 d (14 wk) | 33–326 d | Filter ▸ |
| Change of Use | 25 | 56% | 90 d (13 wk) | 28–247 d | Filter ▸ |
| Outline (low sample) | 3 | 33.3% | 155 d (22 wk) | 51–361 d | Filter ▸ |
ⓘ Month-by-month stats above are filtered to Householder only. The table above always shows all types so you can compare.
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 364 |
83.8%
|
53d (~8wk) | → March | 16–84d |
| February | 130 |
80%
|
46d (~7wk) | → April | 26–56d |
| May | 7 |
85.7%
|
287d (~41wk) (outlier) | → March | 274–296d |
| June | 7 |
57.1%
|
245d (~35wk) (outlier) | → February | 226–258d |
| August | 4 |
75%
|
189d (~27wk) | → February | 173–208d |
| September | 14 |
78.6%
|
156d (~22wk) | → February | 127–196d |
| October | 25 |
92%
|
122d (~17wk) | → February | 96–150d |
| November | 68 |
89.7%
|
91d (~13wk) | → February | 67–141d |
| December | 323 |
87.6%
|
62d (~9wk) | → February | 34–111d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 229 | 81.2% | 63 |
| Tuesday | 208 | 82.7% | 69 |
| Wednesday | 182 | 83.5% | 66 |
| Thursday | 167 | 93.4% | 66 |
| Friday | 154 | 86.4% | 69 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
25,848 dated decisions where both received_date and decision_type are known. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.