🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,167 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Winchester
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
Use the type chips above to filter to the application type you are actually making — and treat cross-council comparisons of the mixed number with care, since the mix depends on which source fed each council.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 55 days (~2 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Nov | 97.5% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Dec | 100% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Jan | 95.8% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Feb | 96.8% |
| May | Submit by end of Mar | 98.7% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Apr | 100% |
| Jul | Submit by end of May | 95.3% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Jun | 97.6% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jul | 92.2% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Aug | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Sep | 100% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Oct | 96.6% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Winchester. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Amendment / NMA (51 days). Slowest: Heritage / LB (77 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 867 | 94.3% | 77 d (11 wk) | 24–330 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO | 694 | 97.4% | 52 d (7 wk) | 3–254 d | ✕ clear |
| Discharge Conditions | 451 | 99.8% | 58 d (8 wk) | 0–333 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 117 | 88.9% | 51 d (7 wk) | 1–246 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 116 | 97.4% | 77 d (11 wk) | 31–202 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 50 | 88% | 71 d (10 wk) | 41–195 d | Filter ▸ |
| Householder (low sample) | 7 | 57.1% | 69 d (10 wk) | 56–101 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval (low sample) | 3 | 100% | 35 d (5 wk) | 26–51 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building (low sample) | 1 | 0% | 305 d (44 wk) | 305–305 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development (low sample) | 1 | 0% | 66 d (9 wk) | 66–66 d | Filter ▸ |
ⓘ Month-by-month stats above are filtered to Tree Works / TPO only. The table above always shows all types so you can compare.
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 72 |
95.8%
|
45d (~6wk) | → March | 3–186d |
| February | 63 |
96.8%
|
51d (~7wk) | → April | 5–147d |
| March | 77 |
98.7%
|
52d (~7wk) | → May | 6–101d |
| April | 65 |
100%
|
49d (~7wk) | → June | 3–99d |
| May | 64 |
95.3%
|
51d (~7wk) | → July | 5–136d |
| June | 83 |
97.6%
|
45d (~6wk) | → August | 3–88d |
| July | 51 |
92.2%
|
57d (~8wk) | → September | 7–119d |
| August | 42 |
100%
|
49d (~7wk) | → October | 15–123d |
| September | 54 |
100%
|
61d (~9wk) | → November | 10–122d |
| October | 59 |
96.6%
|
57d (~8wk) | → December | 15–254d |
| November | 40 |
97.5%
|
59d (~8wk) | → January | 13–105d |
| December | 24 |
100%
|
54d (~8wk) | → February | 11–120d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 174 | 96% | 49 |
| Tuesday | 189 | 98.4% | 53 |
| Wednesday | 117 | 99.1% | 49 |
| Thursday | 119 | 97.5% | 56 |
| Friday | 95 | 95.8% | 53 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,167 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.