🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,167 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Southwark
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
Use the type chips above to filter to the application type you are actually making — and treat cross-council comparisons of the mixed number with care, since the mix depends on which source fed each council.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 36 days (~1 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Dec | 100% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Jan | 97.3% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Feb | 100% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Mar | 100% |
| May | Submit by end of Apr | — |
| Jun | Submit by end of May | — |
| Jul | Submit by end of Jun | — |
| Aug | Submit by end of Jul | — |
| Sep | Submit by end of Aug | 100% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Sep | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Oct | — |
| Dec | Submit by end of Nov | 100% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Southwark. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Tree Works / TPO (33 days). Slowest: Advertisement (87 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Householder | 150 | 94% | 58 d (8 wk) | 26–164 d | Filter ▸ |
| Full / Major | 146 | 93.2% | 82 d (12 wk) | 28–365 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area | 104 | 98.1% | 41 d (6 wk) | 13–365 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO | 97 | 99% | 33 d (5 wk) | 3–55 d | ✕ clear |
| Lawful Development | 52 | 94.2% | 52 d (7 wk) | 7–240 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building | 49 | 98% | 72 d (10 wk) | 38–276 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 36 | 91.7% | 34 d (5 wk) | 0–115 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 23 | 87% | 87 d (12 wk) | 41–349 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval (low sample) | 7 | 100% | 37 d (5 wk) | 9–52 d | Filter ▸ |
| Change of Use (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 28 d (4 wk) | 28–28 d | Filter ▸ |
ⓘ Month-by-month stats above are filtered to Tree Works / TPO only. The table above always shows all types so you can compare.
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 37 |
97.3%
|
32d (~5wk) | → February | 17–45d |
| February | 17 |
100%
|
30d (~4wk) | → March | 15–45d |
| March | 5 |
100%
|
19d (~3wk) | → April | 13–22d |
| August | 3 |
100%
|
6d (~1wk) | → August | 3–11d |
| September | 4 |
100%
|
7d (~1wk) | → September | 5–11d |
| November | 4 |
100%
|
51d (~7wk) | → January | 48–55d |
| December | 27 |
100%
|
42d (~6wk) | → January | 28–55d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 22 | 95.5% | 36 |
| Tuesday | 25 | 100% | 33 |
| Wednesday | 16 | 100% | 34 |
| Thursday | 16 | 100% | 33 |
| Friday | 18 | 100% | 28 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,167 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.