🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 25,848 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Southwark
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 75 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 92.7% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 90.6% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 94.7% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 95.6% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 97% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 100% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 100% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 100% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 100% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 100% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 100% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Southwark. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Conservation Area (41 days). Slowest: Advertisement (87 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Householder | 150 | 94% | 58 d (8 wk) | 26–164 d | Filter ▸ |
| Full / Major | 146 | 93.2% | 82 d (12 wk) | 28–365 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area | 103 | 98.1% | 41 d (6 wk) | 13–365 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development | 52 | 94.2% | 52 d (7 wk) | 7–240 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building | 49 | 98% | 72 d (10 wk) | 38–276 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 23 | 87% | 87 d (12 wk) | 41–349 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval (low sample) | 7 | 100% | 37 d (5 wk) | 9–52 d | Filter ▸ |
| Change of Use (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 28 d (4 wk) | 28–28 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 225 |
95.6%
|
41d (~6wk) | → February | 1–84d |
| February | 134 |
97%
|
41d (~6wk) | → March | 2–350d |
| March | 36 |
100%
|
51d (~7wk) | → May | — |
| April | 4 |
100%
|
226d (~32wk) (outlier) | → December | 1–365d |
| June | 11 |
100%
|
238d (~34wk) (outlier) | → February | 199–276d |
| July | 10 |
100%
|
197d (~28wk) | → February | 165–240d |
| August | 18 |
100%
|
181d (~26wk) | → February | 129–236d |
| September | 16 |
100%
|
146d (~21wk) | → February | 112–176d |
| October | 41 |
92.7%
|
104d (~15wk) | → January | 63–161d |
| November | 106 |
90.6%
|
69d (~10wk) | → January | 42–125d |
| December | 225 |
94.7%
|
53d (~8wk) | → February | 7–107d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 202 | 95.5% | 77 |
| Tuesday | 170 | 96.5% | 69 |
| Wednesday | 180 | 92.8% | 86 |
| Thursday | 161 | 95% | 86 |
| Friday | 147 | 98% | 120 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
25,848 dated decisions where both received_date and decision_type are known. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.