🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 25,848 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Redbridge
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 65 days (~2 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Nov | 66.7% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Dec | 68.8% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Jan | 80.2% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Feb | 81% |
| May | Submit by end of Mar | 92.4% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Apr | 25% |
| Jul | Submit by end of May | 100% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Jun | 100% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Aug | 33.3% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Sep | 40% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Oct | 90% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Redbridge. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Lawful Development (23 days). Slowest: Full / Major (66 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawful Development | 214 | 84.6% | 23 d (3 wk) | 0–67 d | Filter ▸ |
| Householder | 213 | 82.2% | 51 d (7 wk) | 27–326 d | Filter ▸ |
| Full / Major | 134 | 51.5% | 66 d (9 wk) | 32–365 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area | 93 | 84.9% | 27 d (4 wk) | 7–91 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval | 35 | 37.1% | 32 d (5 wk) | 22–53 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 16 | 68.8% | 53 d (8 wk) | 23–78 d | Filter ▸ |
| Outline (low sample) | 2 | 0% | 103 d (15 wk) | 55–151 d | Filter ▸ |
| Change of Use (low sample) | 2 | 50% | 51 d (7 wk) | 48–53 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 257 |
80.2%
|
34d (~5wk) | → February | 1–78d |
| February | 142 |
81%
|
25d (~4wk) | → March | — |
| March | 79 |
92.4%
|
17d (~2wk) | → April | — |
| April | 4 |
25%
|
290d (~41wk) (outlier) | → February | 254–326d |
| July | 4 |
100%
|
211d (~30wk) (outlier) | → February | 172–244d |
| August | 3 |
33.3%
|
169d (~24wk) | → February | 151–194d |
| September | 5 |
40%
|
141d (~20wk) | → February | 119–176d |
| October | 20 |
90%
|
94d (~13wk) | → January | 67–145d |
| November | 117 |
66.7%
|
66d (~9wk) | → January | 36–136d |
| December | 176 |
68.8%
|
45d (~6wk) | → February | 13–109d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 36 | 72.2% | 26 |
| Tuesday | 212 | 78.8% | 37 |
| Wednesday | 152 | 77.6% | 55 |
| Thursday | 148 | 74.3% | 45 |
| Friday | 141 | 75.9% | 40 |
| Saturday | 120 | 78.3% | 50 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
25,848 dated decisions where both received_date and decision_type are known. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.