🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 25,848 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Newham
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 79 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 100% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 89.4% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 83.7% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 85.3% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 86.4% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 100% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 100% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 100% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 50% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 100% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 100% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Newham. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Lawful Development (51 days). Slowest: Listed Building (177 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 98 | 77.6% | 77 d (11 wk) | 11–314 d | Filter ▸ |
| Householder | 93 | 87.1% | 67 d (10 wk) | 35–274 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development | 68 | 76.5% | 51 d (7 wk) | 6–112 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 23 | 91.3% | 73 d (10 wk) | 46–131 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval | 18 | 61.1% | 97 d (14 wk) | 27–345 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building | 8 | 100% | 177 d (25 wk) | 51–290 d | Filter ▸ |
| Change of Use (low sample) | 7 | 57.1% | 116 d (17 wk) | 53–298 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area (low sample) | 5 | 80% | 64 d (9 wk) | 52–93 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 129 |
85.3%
|
48d (~7wk) | → March | — |
| February | 59 |
86.4%
|
41d (~6wk) | → March | 6–315d |
| March | 10 |
100%
|
107d (~15wk) | → July | 6–345d |
| May | 9 |
100%
|
282d (~40wk) (outlier) | → February | 252–314d |
| July | 6 |
100%
|
219d (~31wk) (outlier) | → February | 182–268d |
| August | 12 |
100%
|
179d (~26wk) | → February | 149–216d |
| September | 8 |
100%
|
139d (~20wk) | → February | 112–182d |
| October | 19 |
100%
|
106d (~15wk) | → February | 63–174d |
| November | 123 |
89.4%
|
72d (~10wk) | → January | 42–144d |
| December | 135 |
83.7%
|
63d (~9wk) | → February | 16–116d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 121 | 84.3% | 89 |
| Tuesday | 129 | 89.9% | 80 |
| Wednesday | 102 | 88.2% | 85 |
| Thursday | 78 | 89.7% | 91 |
| Friday | 92 | 90.2% | 97 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
25,848 dated decisions where both received_date and decision_type are known. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.