🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 25,848 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Lambeth
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 76 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 75.4% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 70.2% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 74.3% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 78.5% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 82.2% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 100% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 74.2% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 82.9% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 90.2% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 100% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 100% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Lambeth. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Lawful Development (59 days). Slowest: Listed Building (86 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 246 | 67.1% | 75 d (11 wk) | 36–316 d | Filter ▸ |
| Householder | 160 | 78.8% | 65 d (9 wk) | 28–210 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development | 94 | 83% | 59 d (8 wk) | 14–141 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 94 | 48.9% | 65 d (9 wk) | 50–122 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building | 63 | 76.2% | 86 d (12 wk) | 53–316 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area | 31 | 54.8% | 70 d (10 wk) | 18–146 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval | 14 | 50% | 64 d (9 wk) | 37–196 d | Filter ▸ |
| Change of Use (low sample) | 7 | 57.1% | 89 d (13 wk) | 46–196 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 172 |
78.5%
|
52d (~7wk) | → March | 1–80d |
| February | 73 |
82.2%
|
53d (~8wk) | → April | 14–356d |
| March | 11 |
100%
|
13d (~2wk) | → March | 1–29d |
| April | 31 |
74.2%
|
92d (~13wk) | → July | 38–315d |
| May | 70 |
82.9%
|
56d (~8wk) | → July | 18–316d |
| June | 41 |
90.2%
|
59d (~8wk) | → August | 11–267d |
| July | 4 |
100%
|
180d (~26wk) | → January | 23–258d |
| August | 6 |
100%
|
209d (~30wk) (outlier) | → March | 178–234d |
| September | 20 |
100%
|
148d (~21wk) | → February | 119–211d |
| October | 61 |
75.4%
|
99d (~14wk) | → January | 69–160d |
| November | 168 |
70.2%
|
67d (~10wk) | → January | 42–146d |
| December | 214 |
74.3%
|
61d (~9wk) | → February | 22–115d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday | 6 | 66.7% | 72 |
| Monday | 248 | 70.2% | 82 |
| Tuesday | 172 | 80.2% | 90 |
| Wednesday | 165 | 83.6% | 79 |
| Thursday | 150 | 80.7% | 63 |
| Friday | 147 | 78.9% | 70 |
| Saturday | 5 | 100% | 59 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
25,848 dated decisions where both received_date and decision_type are known. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.