🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,135 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Isle of Man
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 75 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 91.5% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 92.6% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 92% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 92.8% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 96.8% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 96.3% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 94.3% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 96.7% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 93.1% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 94.1% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 92.4% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 91.6% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Isle of Man. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Discharge Conditions (58 days). Slowest: Heritage / LB (87 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 930 | 93.2% | 75 d (11 wk) | 27–357 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 66 | 90.9% | 70 d (10 wk) | 30–219 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 29 | 96.6% | 87 d (12 wk) | 31–313 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 26 | 96.2% | 69 d (10 wk) | 30–195 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions | 20 | 95% | 58 d (8 wk) | 3–251 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 97 |
92.8%
|
82d (~12wk) | → April | 28–312d |
| February | 31 |
96.8%
|
89d (~13wk) | → May | 48–313d |
| March | 27 |
96.3%
|
71d (~10wk) | → May | 33–159d |
| April | 35 |
94.3%
|
108d (~15wk) | → August | 82–141d |
| May | 30 |
96.7%
|
97d (~14wk) | → August | 49–334d |
| June | 116 |
93.1%
|
63d (~9wk) | → August | 27–334d |
| July | 169 |
94.1%
|
69d (~10wk) | → September | 3–357d |
| August | 131 |
92.4%
|
70d (~10wk) | → October | 34–336d |
| September | 107 |
91.6%
|
78d (~11wk) | → December | 32–286d |
| October | 165 |
91.5%
|
70d (~10wk) | → December | 29–287d |
| November | 121 |
92.6%
|
75d (~11wk) | → February | 16–336d |
| December | 100 |
92%
|
78d (~11wk) | → March | 30–258d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday | 6 | 83.3% | 63 |
| Monday | 227 | 89.9% | 94 |
| Tuesday | 254 | 92.9% | 78 |
| Wednesday | 223 | 92.8% | 95 |
| Thursday | 219 | 90.9% | 88 |
| Friday | 219 | 94.5% | 86 |
| Saturday | 6 | 100% | 72 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,135 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.