🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,135 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Hull
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
Use the type chips above to filter to the application type you are actually making — and treat cross-council comparisons of the mixed number with care, since the mix depends on which source fed each council.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 89 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 93.8% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 92.3% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 75% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 100% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 87% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 85.9% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 78.9% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 70.6% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 83.3% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 96.8% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 80.4% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 86.7% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Hull. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Tree Works / TPO (48 days). Slowest: Heritage / LB (94 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 121 | 87.6% | 93 d (13 wk) | 37–340 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO | 60 | 95% | 48 d (7 wk) | 0–194 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 21 | 95.2% | 80 d (11 wk) | 0–178 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 20 | 95% | 94 d (13 wk) | 52–199 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 13 | 92.3% | 80 d (11 wk) | 36–247 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions (low sample) | 6 | 0% | 65 d (9 wk) | 24–148 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area (low sample) | 3 | 100% | 40 d (6 wk) | 39–41 d | Filter ▸ |
| Householder (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 41 d (6 wk) | 41–41 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 41 d (6 wk) | 41–41 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 27 |
100%
|
83d (~12wk) | → April | 14–232d |
| February | 54 |
87%
|
75d (~11wk) | → May | 37–234d |
| March | 64 |
85.9%
|
70d (~10wk) | → May | — |
| April | 19 |
78.9%
|
68d (~10wk) | → June | 9–172d |
| May | 17 |
70.6%
|
99d (~14wk) | → August | 8–140d |
| June | 24 |
83.3%
|
75d (~11wk) | → September | — |
| July | 31 |
96.8%
|
57d (~8wk) | → September | 24–129d |
| August | 46 |
80.4%
|
62d (~9wk) | → October | 2–364d |
| September | 30 |
86.7%
|
60d (~9wk) | → November | — |
| October | 16 |
93.8%
|
68d (~10wk) | → December | 36–107d |
| November | 13 |
92.3%
|
86d (~12wk) | → February | 31–272d |
| December | 12 |
75%
|
103d (~15wk) | → March | 14–247d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 64 | 78.1% | 86 |
| Tuesday | 70 | 87.1% | 78 |
| Wednesday | 79 | 88.6% | 69 |
| Thursday | 74 | 89.2% | 69 |
| Friday | 67 | 86.6% | 100 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,135 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.