🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 25,848 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Havering
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 78 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 50% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 82.4% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 51.5% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 70% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 0% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | — |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | — |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | — |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 0% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | — |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 25% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Havering. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Conservation Area (42 days). Slowest: Full / Major (74 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Householder | 204 | 89.7% | 65 d (9 wk) | 31–252 d | Filter ▸ |
| Full / Major | 86 | 59.3% | 74 d (11 wk) | 43–225 d | ✕ clear |
| Conservation Area | 20 | 65% | 42 d (6 wk) | 23–84 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development | 19 | 0% | 62 d (9 wk) | 54–112 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval | 18 | 55.6% | 47 d (7 wk) | 32–84 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building (low sample) | 5 | 80% | 55 d (8 wk) | 50–56 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement (low sample) | 4 | 75% | 54 d (8 wk) | 41–59 d | Filter ▸ |
| Outline (low sample) | 1 | 0% | 56 d (8 wk) | 56–56 d | Filter ▸ |
| Reserved Matters (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 163 d (23 wk) | 163–163 d | Filter ▸ |
ⓘ Month-by-month stats above are filtered to Full / Major only. The table above always shows all types so you can compare.
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 20 |
70%
|
57d (~8wk) | → March | 43–74d |
| September | 4 |
25%
|
129d (~18wk) | → January | 111–155d |
| October | 8 |
50%
|
104d (~15wk) | → January | 73–130d |
| November | 17 |
82.4%
|
64d (~9wk) | → January | 50–108d |
| December | 33 |
51.5%
|
68d (~10wk) | → February | 56–106d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 26 | 65.4% | 103 |
| Tuesday | 15 | 53.3% | 189 |
| Wednesday | 18 | 55.6% | 86 |
| Thursday | 15 | 66.7% | 68 |
| Friday | 17 | 64.7% | 176 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
25,848 dated decisions where both received_date and decision_type are known. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.