🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 25,848 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Havering
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 78 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 74.3% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 85.1% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 68.6% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 76.9% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 69.2% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 50% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 100% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 100% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 60% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 66.7% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 80% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 75% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Havering. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Conservation Area (42 days). Slowest: Full / Major (74 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Householder | 204 | 89.7% | 65 d (9 wk) | 31–252 d | Filter ▸ |
| Full / Major | 86 | 59.3% | 74 d (11 wk) | 43–225 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area | 20 | 65% | 42 d (6 wk) | 23–84 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development | 19 | 0% | 62 d (9 wk) | 54–112 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval | 18 | 55.6% | 47 d (7 wk) | 32–84 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building (low sample) | 5 | 80% | 55 d (8 wk) | 50–56 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement (low sample) | 4 | 75% | 54 d (8 wk) | 41–59 d | Filter ▸ |
| Outline (low sample) | 1 | 0% | 56 d (8 wk) | 56–56 d | Filter ▸ |
| Reserved Matters (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 163 d (23 wk) | 163–163 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 130 |
76.9%
|
50d (~7wk) | → March | 13–77d |
| February | 26 |
69.2%
|
48d (~7wk) | → April | 27–56d |
| May | 3 |
100%
|
263d (~38wk) (outlier) | → February | 252–282d |
| June | 5 |
60%
|
246d (~35wk) (outlier) | → February | 211–289d |
| July | 9 |
66.7%
|
192d (~27wk) | → January | 170–253d |
| August | 10 |
80%
|
157d (~22wk) | → January | 144–185d |
| September | 16 |
75%
|
141d (~20wk) | → February | 111–178d |
| October | 35 |
74.3%
|
107d (~15wk) | → February | 70–163d |
| November | 67 |
85.1%
|
64d (~9wk) | → January | 42–126d |
| December | 118 |
68.6%
|
62d (~9wk) | → February | 28–112d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 100 | 76% | 81 |
| Tuesday | 91 | 75.8% | 96 |
| Wednesday | 91 | 73.6% | 79 |
| Thursday | 67 | 73.1% | 85 |
| Friday | 79 | 77.2% | 93 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
25,848 dated decisions where both received_date and decision_type are known. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.