🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,135 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Harrow
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 77 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 93.2% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 93.9% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 92.2% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 93.8% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 94.1% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 97.1% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 100% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 92.5% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 97.1% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 95.7% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 92.9% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 93.5% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Harrow. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Amendment / NMA (68 days). Slowest: Advertisement (73 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 284 | 94.4% | 70 d (10 wk) | 37–321 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions | 29 | 100% | 69 d (10 wk) | 52–210 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 26 | 84.6% | 68 d (10 wk) | 28–123 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 21 | 100% | 73 d (10 wk) | 29–247 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO (low sample) | 6 | 100% | 59 d (8 wk) | 54–63 d | Filter ▸ |
| Outline (low sample) | 1 | 0% | 37 d (5 wk) | 37–37 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 48 |
93.8%
|
64d (~9wk) | → March | 1–157d |
| February | 34 |
94.1%
|
60d (~9wk) | → April | 29–138d |
| March | 35 |
97.1%
|
64d (~9wk) | → May | 34–123d |
| April | 37 |
100%
|
69d (~10wk) | → June | 40–184d |
| May | 40 |
92.5%
|
67d (~10wk) | → July | 37–155d |
| June | 34 |
97.1%
|
70d (~10wk) | → August | 28–237d |
| July | 47 |
95.7%
|
67d (~10wk) | → September | 27–162d |
| August | 42 |
92.9%
|
69d (~10wk) | → October | 52–153d |
| September | 31 |
93.5%
|
84d (~12wk) | → December | 42–247d |
| October | 44 |
93.2%
|
62d (~9wk) | → December | 28–140d |
| November | 33 |
93.9%
|
78d (~11wk) | → February | 38–278d |
| December | 51 |
92.2%
|
81d (~12wk) | → March | 42–321d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 121 | 90.9% | 69 |
| Tuesday | 115 | 96.5% | 69 |
| Wednesday | 114 | 93% | 73 |
| Thursday | 104 | 95.2% | 72 |
| Friday | 94 | 91.5% | 74 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,135 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.