🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,135 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Guernsey
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 113 days (~4 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Sep | 78.3% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Oct | 86.5% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Nov | 100% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Dec | 84.6% |
| May | Submit by end of Jan | 100% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Feb | 100% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Mar | 97.2% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Apr | 85.7% |
| Sep | Submit by end of May | 88.9% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jun | 93.8% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Jul | 96% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Aug | 77.8% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Guernsey. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Full / Major (76 days). Slowest: Amendment / NMA (95 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 391 | 92.6% | 76 d (11 wk) | 28–344 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 22 | 95.5% | 95 d (14 wk) | 35–230 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 19 |
100%
|
98d (~14wk) | → April | 60–230d |
| February | 44 |
100%
|
63d (~9wk) | → April | 35–184d |
| March | 36 |
97.2%
|
57d (~8wk) | → May | 29–224d |
| April | 14 |
85.7%
|
130d (~19wk) | → August | 85–344d |
| May | 36 |
88.9%
|
87d (~12wk) | → August | 49–217d |
| June | 81 |
93.8%
|
60d (~9wk) | → August | 32–225d |
| July | 50 |
96%
|
63d (~9wk) | → September | 36–273d |
| August | 9 |
77.8%
|
163d (~23wk) | → January | 90–248d |
| September | 23 |
78.3%
|
130d (~19wk) | → January | 57–330d |
| October | 52 |
86.5%
|
72d (~10wk) | → December | 29–206d |
| November | 36 |
100%
|
62d (~9wk) | → January | 28–158d |
| December | 13 |
84.6%
|
148d (~21wk) | → May | 100–287d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 104 | 95.2% | 77 |
| Tuesday | 91 | 87.9% | 82 |
| Wednesday | 97 | 94.8% | 80 |
| Thursday | 74 | 93.2% | 79 |
| Friday | 71 | 91.5% | 72 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,135 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.