🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 25,848 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Gateshead Council
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 101 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 85.7% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 94.3% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 100% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 88.5% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 95.5% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 91.1% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 93.3% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 96.3% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 90.9% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 100% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 83.3% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Gateshead Council. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Discharge Conditions (81 days). Slowest: Full / Major (132 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Householder | 89 | 97.8% | 90 d (13 wk) | 19–365 d | Filter ▸ |
| Full / Major | 61 | 83.6% | 132 d (19 wk) | 51–328 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions | 39 | 89.7% | 81 d (12 wk) | 3–337 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building (low sample) | 7 | 100% | 142 d (20 wk) | 56–319 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval (low sample) | 3 | 100% | 59 d (8 wk) | 56–63 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement (low sample) | 3 | 0% | 75 d (11 wk) | 54–115 d | Filter ▸ |
| Outline (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 323 d (46 wk) | 323–323 d | Filter ▸ |
| Change of Use (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 282 d (40 wk) | 282–282 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 26 |
88.5%
|
90d (~13wk) | → April | 6–196d |
| February | 44 |
95.5%
|
73d (~10wk) | → April | 9–161d |
| March | 45 |
91.1%
|
62d (~9wk) | → May | 3–127d |
| April | 30 |
93.3%
|
60d (~9wk) | → June | 14–102d |
| May | 27 |
96.3%
|
65d (~9wk) | → July | 14–337d |
| June | 11 |
90.9%
|
94d (~13wk) | → September | 28–323d |
| July | 4 |
100%
|
323d (~46wk) (outlier) | → June | 280–365d |
| August | 5 |
100%
|
242d (~35wk) (outlier) | → April | 123–328d |
| September | 12 |
83.3%
|
218d (~31wk) (outlier) | → April | 109–319d |
| October | 21 |
85.7%
|
150d (~21wk) | → March | 68–261d |
| November | 35 |
94.3%
|
97d (~14wk) | → February | 24–210d |
| December | 25 |
100%
|
98d (~14wk) | → March | 6–169d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 50 | 88% | 118 |
| Tuesday | 69 | 91.3% | 158 |
| Wednesday | 65 | 86.2% | 83 |
| Thursday | 59 | 100% | 112 |
| Friday | 60 | 91.7% | 143 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
25,848 dated decisions where both received_date and decision_type are known. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.