🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,135 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Forest of Dean
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
Use the type chips above to filter to the application type you are actually making — and treat cross-council comparisons of the mixed number with care, since the mix depends on which source fed each council.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 112 days (~4 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Sep | 93.3% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Oct | 95.2% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Nov | 92.1% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Dec | 93.8% |
| May | Submit by end of Jan | 94.4% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Feb | 80.8% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Mar | 95.5% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Apr | 90.5% |
| Sep | Submit by end of May | 95.6% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jun | 94.1% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Jul | 98.3% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Aug | 100% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Forest of Dean. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Tree Works / TPO (34 days). Slowest: Heritage / LB (107 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 269 | 92.9% | 97 d (14 wk) | 31–364 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO | 78 | 97.4% | 34 d (5 wk) | 11–57 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions | 60 | 98.3% | 63 d (9 wk) | 27–248 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 20 | 100% | 50 d (7 wk) | 6–164 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 14 | 92.9% | 107 d (15 wk) | 55–298 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area (low sample) | 7 | 100% | 29 d (4 wk) | 28–31 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement (low sample) | 5 | 100% | 74 d (11 wk) | 50–141 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building (low sample) | 2 | 50% | 51 d (7 wk) | 47–55 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 18 |
94.4%
|
106d (~15wk) | → May | 64–225d |
| February | 52 |
80.8%
|
76d (~11wk) | → May | 51–201d |
| March | 44 |
95.5%
|
95d (~14wk) | → June | 20–364d |
| April | 21 |
90.5%
|
115d (~16wk) | → August | 19–143d |
| May | 45 |
95.6%
|
93d (~13wk) | → August | 56–223d |
| June | 102 |
94.1%
|
60d (~9wk) | → August | 28–209d |
| July | 60 |
98.3%
|
57d (~8wk) | → September | 6–269d |
| August | 21 |
100%
|
69d (~10wk) | → October | 9–350d |
| September | 30 |
93.3%
|
81d (~12wk) | → December | 27–332d |
| October | 63 |
95.2%
|
59d (~8wk) | → December | 27–298d |
| November | 38 |
92.1%
|
61d (~9wk) | → January | 23–259d |
| December | 16 |
93.8%
|
162d (~23wk) | → May | 11–268d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 142 | 95.1% | 83 |
| Tuesday | 104 | 85.6% | 87 |
| Wednesday | 97 | 94.8% | 75 |
| Thursday | 87 | 93.1% | 88 |
| Friday | 89 | 97.8% | 83 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,135 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.