🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,167 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 East Riding
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
Use the type chips above to filter to the application type you are actually making — and treat cross-council comparisons of the mixed number with care, since the mix depends on which source fed each council.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 35 days (~1 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Dec | 100% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Jan | 100% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Feb | 100% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Mar | 94.6% |
| May | Submit by end of Apr | 100% |
| Jun | Submit by end of May | 100% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Jun | 94.7% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Aug | 87.5% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Sep | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Oct | 90% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Nov | 98% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at East Riding. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Tree Works / TPO (35 days). Slowest: Heritage / LB (90 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 590 | 91.5% | 83 d (12 wk) | 15–347 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO | 303 | 97.4% | 35 d (5 wk) | 0–199 d | ✕ clear |
| Discharge Conditions | 227 | 94.3% | 68 d (10 wk) | 6–350 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 87 | 82.8% | 47 d (7 wk) | 8–246 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 57 | 96.5% | 90 d (13 wk) | 48–336 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 23 | 65.2% | 82 d (12 wk) | 42–254 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval (low sample) | 2 | 100% | 25 d (4 wk) | 22–27 d | Filter ▸ |
ⓘ Month-by-month stats above are filtered to Tree Works / TPO only. The table above always shows all types so you can compare.
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 30 |
100%
|
23d (~3wk) | → February | 1–56d |
| February | 34 |
100%
|
32d (~5wk) | → March | — |
| March | 37 |
94.6%
|
39d (~6wk) | → April | 2–77d |
| April | 12 |
100%
|
31d (~4wk) | → May | 2–51d |
| May | 5 |
100%
|
45d (~6wk) | → July | 37–62d |
| June | 38 |
94.7%
|
39d (~6wk) | → July | 28–63d |
| July | 21 |
100%
|
30d (~4wk) | → August | 2–199d |
| August | 8 |
87.5%
|
45d (~6wk) | → October | 2–117d |
| September | 13 |
100%
|
39d (~6wk) | → October | 24–57d |
| October | 20 |
90%
|
44d (~6wk) | → November | 5–63d |
| November | 50 |
98%
|
39d (~6wk) | → December | 2–75d |
| December | 35 |
100%
|
31d (~4wk) | → January | 1–63d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 66 | 97% | 36 |
| Tuesday | 68 | 95.6% | 35 |
| Wednesday | 65 | 96.9% | 39 |
| Thursday | 44 | 100% | 32 |
| Friday | 60 | 98.3% | 35 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,167 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.