🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,156 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 East Lothian
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 75 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 97.1% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 95.6% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 94.3% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 96.3% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 93.9% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 95.7% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 91.3% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 95.6% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 97.3% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 96.2% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 96.4% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 97.9% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at East Lothian. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Heritage / LB (71 days). Slowest: Discharge Conditions (198 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 810 | 96% | 78 d (11 wk) | 1–350 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 173 | 97.7% | 71 d (10 wk) | 32–344 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 37 | 100% | 76 d (11 wk) | 17–212 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 17 | 70.6% | 81 d (12 wk) | 34–322 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions | 15 | 93.3% | 198 d (28 wk) | 59–357 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 43 d (6 wk) | 43–43 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 54 |
96.3%
|
93d (~13wk) | → April | 4–253d |
| February | 66 |
93.9%
|
83d (~12wk) | → May | 34–216d |
| March | 69 |
95.7%
|
81d (~12wk) | → June | 18–250d |
| April | 46 |
91.3%
|
105d (~15wk) | → August | 17–260d |
| May | 68 |
95.6%
|
85d (~12wk) | → August | 2–256d |
| June | 147 |
97.3%
|
65d (~9wk) | → August | 23–307d |
| July | 156 |
96.2%
|
74d (~11wk) | → September | 1–322d |
| August | 139 |
96.4%
|
73d (~10wk) | → October | 2–344d |
| September | 94 |
97.9%
|
73d (~10wk) | → November | 6–344d |
| October | 140 |
97.1%
|
69d (~10wk) | → December | 7–357d |
| November | 91 |
95.6%
|
57d (~8wk) | → January | 1–270d |
| December | 70 |
94.3%
|
86d (~12wk) | → March | 5–279d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 238 | 95.8% | 75 |
| Tuesday | 250 | 98% | 85 |
| Wednesday | 239 | 96.7% | 80 |
| Thursday | 226 | 95.6% | 87 |
| Friday | 209 | 93.3% | 96 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,156 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.