🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,156 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Durham
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
Use the type chips above to filter to the application type you are actually making — and treat cross-council comparisons of the mixed number with care, since the mix depends on which source fed each council.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 44 days (~1 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Dec | 88.5% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Jan | 85.3% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Feb | 88% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Mar | 94.6% |
| May | Submit by end of Apr | 89.7% |
| Jun | Submit by end of May | 85.4% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Jun | 91.7% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Aug | 84.4% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Sep | 94.9% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Oct | 87.8% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Nov | 93.9% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Durham. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Prior Approval (29 days). Slowest: Full / Major (82 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 884 | 93.9% | 82 d (12 wk) | 30–315 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions | 410 | 98.5% | 62 d (9 wk) | 2–328 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO | 395 | 90.1% | 41 d (6 wk) | 6–200 d | ✕ clear |
| Amendment / NMA | 149 | 96.6% | 36 d (5 wk) | 1–180 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 105 | 91.4% | 66 d (9 wk) | 31–185 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 105 | 98.1% | 74 d (11 wk) | 35–294 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval | 11 | 90.9% | 29 d (4 wk) | 25–56 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development (low sample) | 2 | 0% | 88 d (13 wk) | 56–119 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 54 d (8 wk) | 54–54 d | Filter ▸ |
ⓘ Month-by-month stats above are filtered to Tree Works / TPO only. The table above always shows all types so you can compare.
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 34 |
85.3%
|
36d (~5wk) | → February | 7–90d |
| February | 25 |
88%
|
39d (~6wk) | → March | 10–74d |
| March | 37 |
94.6%
|
37d (~5wk) | → April | 12–82d |
| April | 29 |
89.7%
|
39d (~6wk) | → May | 9–84d |
| May | 41 |
85.4%
|
44d (~6wk) | → June | 15–67d |
| June | 24 |
91.7%
|
37d (~5wk) | → July | 9–176d |
| July | 14 |
100%
|
35d (~5wk) | → August | 10–79d |
| August | 32 |
84.4%
|
47d (~7wk) | → October | 17–141d |
| September | 59 |
94.9%
|
36d (~5wk) | → October | 8–106d |
| October | 41 |
87.8%
|
49d (~7wk) | → December | 6–200d |
| November | 33 |
93.9%
|
50d (~7wk) | → January | 10–186d |
| December | 26 |
88.5%
|
42d (~6wk) | → January | 19–69d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 89 | 89.9% | 41 |
| Tuesday | 103 | 87.4% | 40 |
| Wednesday | 75 | 94.7% | 43 |
| Thursday | 72 | 88.9% | 43 |
| Friday | 56 | 91.1% | 39 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,156 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.