🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,156 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Derry and Strabane
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 152 days (~5 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Aug | 100% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Sep | 100% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Oct | 87.5% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Nov | 100% |
| May | Submit by end of Dec | 100% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Jan | 100% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Feb | 95.2% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Mar | 100% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Apr | 100% |
| Oct | Submit by end of May | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Jun | 100% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Derry and Strabane. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Amendment / NMA (80 days). Slowest: Heritage / LB (173 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 210 | 99% | 130 d (19 wk) | 39–363 d | ✕ clear |
| Advertisement | 13 | 100% | 139 d (20 wk) | 41–266 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 13 | 84.6% | 80 d (11 wk) | 16–169 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 10 | 100% | 173 d (25 wk) | 35–352 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions (low sample) | 7 | 71.4% | 99 d (14 wk) | 34–147 d | Filter ▸ |
ⓘ Month-by-month stats above are filtered to Full / Major only. The table above always shows all types so you can compare.
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 12 |
100%
|
195d (~28wk) | → August | 91–352d |
| February | 21 |
95.2%
|
109d (~16wk) | → June | 61–220d |
| March | 34 |
100%
|
115d (~16wk) | → July | 49–216d |
| April | 35 |
100%
|
115d (~16wk) | → August | 41–287d |
| May | 15 |
100%
|
157d (~22wk) | → October | 55–279d |
| June | 16 |
100%
|
119d (~17wk) | → October | 45–216d |
| July | 24 |
100%
|
120d (~17wk) | → November | 55–363d |
| August | 14 |
100%
|
113d (~16wk) | → December | 39–340d |
| September | 5 |
100%
|
165d (~24wk) | → March | 74–335d |
| October | 8 |
87.5%
|
212d (~30wk) (outlier) | → May | 57–357d |
| November | 22 |
100%
|
130d (~19wk) | → March | 42–311d |
| December | 4 |
100%
|
170d (~24wk) | → June | 118–242d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday | 8 | 100% | 264 |
| Monday | 82 | 100% | 160 |
| Tuesday | 74 | 98.6% | 186 |
| Wednesday | 78 | 98.7% | 208 |
| Thursday | 73 | 98.6% | 223 |
| Friday | 87 | 98.9% | 174 |
| Saturday | 8 | 100% | 90 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,156 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.