🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 25,848 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Croydon
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 72 days (~2 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Nov | 71.9% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Dec | 74.4% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Jan | 75.2% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Feb | 82.1% |
| May | Submit by end of Mar | 93.5% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Apr | — |
| Jul | Submit by end of May | 100% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Jun | 100% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jul | 57.1% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Aug | 80% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Sep | 77.5% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Oct | 68.6% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Croydon. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Conservation Area (31 days). Slowest: Advertisement (101 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Householder | 189 | 81.5% | 68 d (10 wk) | 29–295 d | Filter ▸ |
| Full / Major | 155 | 56.1% | 89 d (13 wk) | 35–359 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development | 112 | 77.7% | 40 d (6 wk) | 2–105 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area | 68 | 91.2% | 31 d (4 wk) | 8–95 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval | 52 | 76.9% | 54 d (8 wk) | 20–247 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 42 | 69% | 101 d (14 wk) | 38–148 d | Filter ▸ |
| Change of Use (low sample) | 6 | 66.7% | 134 d (19 wk) | 51–247 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building (low sample) | 5 | 100% | 72 d (10 wk) | 38–97 d | Filter ▸ |
| Outline (low sample) | 2 | 0% | 53 d (8 wk) | 51–54 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 202 |
75.2%
|
44d (~6wk) | → February | 2–80d |
| February | 134 |
82.1%
|
36d (~5wk) | → March | 3–359d |
| March | 31 |
93.5%
|
27d (~4wk) | → April | 3–295d |
| June | 5 |
100%
|
236d (~34wk) (outlier) | → February | 214–252d |
| July | 7 |
57.1%
|
200d (~29wk) | → February | 167–236d |
| August | 10 |
80%
|
196d (~28wk) | → March | 158–226d |
| September | 40 |
77.5%
|
135d (~19wk) | → February | 99–184d |
| October | 51 |
68.6%
|
105d (~15wk) | → February | 60–162d |
| November | 121 |
71.9%
|
66d (~9wk) | → January | 36–149d |
| December | 215 |
74.4%
|
55d (~8wk) | → February | 9–115d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 214 | 75.7% | 68 |
| Tuesday | 179 | 77.1% | 63 |
| Wednesday | 150 | 73.3% | 55 |
| Thursday | 148 | 79.7% | 70 |
| Friday | 129 | 74.4% | 71 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
25,848 dated decisions where both received_date and decision_type are known. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.