🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,135 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Copeland
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
Use the type chips above to filter to the application type you are actually making — and treat cross-council comparisons of the mixed number with care, since the mix depends on which source fed each council.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 87 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | — |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 100% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | — |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | — |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | — |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | — |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 100% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | — |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 100% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | — |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | — |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Copeland. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Tree Works / TPO (44 days). Slowest: Heritage / LB (87 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discharge Conditions | 105 | 100% | 76 d (11 wk) | 3–301 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 61 | 95.1% | 87 d (12 wk) | 27–312 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO | 39 | 94.9% | 44 d (6 wk) | 3–78 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 14 | 100% | 87 d (12 wk) | 13–301 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 12 | 100% | 63 d (9 wk) | 45–113 d | Filter ▸ |
| Full / Major (low sample) | 5 | 100% | 84 d (12 wk) | 52–148 d | ✕ clear |
ⓘ Month-by-month stats above are filtered to Full / Major only. The table above always shows all types so you can compare.
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,135 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.