🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,167 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Conwy
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
Use the type chips above to filter to the application type you are actually making — and treat cross-council comparisons of the mixed number with care, since the mix depends on which source fed each council.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 176 days (~6 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Jul | 65.7% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Aug | 59.4% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Sep | 50% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Oct | 60% |
| May | Submit by end of Nov | 40% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Dec | 64.3% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Jan | 83.3% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Feb | 50% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Mar | 53.8% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Apr | 45% |
| Nov | Submit by end of May | 73.3% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Jun | 80% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Conwy. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Amendment / NMA (40 days). Slowest: Full / Major (104 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 211 | 64% | 104 d (15 wk) | 29–350 d | ✕ clear |
| Discharge Conditions | 108 | 98.1% | 67 d (10 wk) | 7–251 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 37 | 83.8% | 40 d (6 wk) | 7–102 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development | 23 | 78.3% | 86 d (12 wk) | 49–215 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building | 13 | 84.6% | 80 d (11 wk) | 57–116 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area | 8 | 100% | 50 d (7 wk) | 34–90 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement (low sample) | 6 | 50% | 66 d (9 wk) | 55–81 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval (low sample) | 4 | 100% | 32 d (5 wk) | 29–35 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB (low sample) | 1 | 0% | 50 d (7 wk) | 50–50 d | Filter ▸ |
ⓘ Month-by-month stats above are filtered to Full / Major only. The table above always shows all types so you can compare.
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6 |
83.3%
|
189d (~27wk) | → July | 69–235d |
| February | 12 |
50%
|
115d (~16wk) | → June | 51–201d |
| March | 13 |
53.8%
|
122d (~17wk) | → July | 59–257d |
| April | 20 |
45%
|
93d (~13wk) | → July | 51–162d |
| May | 30 |
73.3%
|
96d (~14wk) | → August | 50–248d |
| June | 35 |
80%
|
82d (~12wk) | → September | 48–122d |
| July | 35 |
65.7%
|
76d (~11wk) | → October | 29–118d |
| August | 32 |
59.4%
|
59d (~8wk) | → October | 43–100d |
| September | 4 |
50%
|
190d (~27wk) | → March | 55–337d |
| October | 5 |
60%
|
242d (~35wk) (outlier) | → June | 62–350d |
| November | 5 |
40%
|
188d (~27wk) | → May | 78–259d |
| December | 14 |
64.3%
|
193d (~28wk) | → June | 55–295d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 53 | 77.4% | 125 |
| Tuesday | 44 | 56.8% | 115 |
| Wednesday | 51 | 56.9% | 129 |
| Thursday | 43 | 65.1% | 144 |
| Friday | 38 | 55.3% | 169 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,167 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.