🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,135 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 City of London
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 95 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 97.1% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 100% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 100% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 100% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 97.4% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 100% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 100% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 100% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 100% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 100% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 100% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at City of London. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Amendment / NMA (60 days). Slowest: Listed Building (139 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 54 | 98.1% | 131 d (19 wk) | 45–361 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building | 36 | 100% | 139 d (20 wk) | 42–326 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 17 | 100% | 60 d (9 wk) | 6–155 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 14 | 92.9% | 100 d (14 wk) | 48–203 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development (low sample) | 4 | 100% | 38 d (5 wk) | 19–54 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area (low sample) | 2 | 100% | 70 d (10 wk) | 56–83 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 56 d (8 wk) | 56–56 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 36 |
100%
|
45d (~6wk) | → March | 7–85d |
| February | 38 |
97.4%
|
47d (~7wk) | → April | 1–363d |
| March | 17 |
100%
|
145d (~21wk) | → August | 1–362d |
| April | 6 |
100%
|
149d (~21wk) | → September | 105–336d |
| May | 7 |
100%
|
166d (~24wk) | → November | 61–278d |
| June | 13 |
100%
|
133d (~19wk) | → October | 34–287d |
| July | 31 |
100%
|
149d (~21wk) | → December | 14–259d |
| August | 24 |
100%
|
85d (~12wk) | → November | 12–226d |
| September | 23 |
100%
|
114d (~16wk) | → January | 22–189d |
| October | 34 |
97.1%
|
128d (~18wk) | → February | 12–170d |
| November | 32 |
100%
|
106d (~15wk) | → March | 71–140d |
| December | 52 |
100%
|
78d (~11wk) | → March | 46–118d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 81 | 100% | 118 |
| Tuesday | 69 | 100% | 113 |
| Wednesday | 70 | 94.3% | 134 |
| Thursday | 47 | 100% | 145 |
| Friday | 66 | 98.5% | 109 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,135 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.