🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,135 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Cheltenham
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 53 days (~2 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Nov | 97.1% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Dec | 100% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Jan | 100% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Feb | 100% |
| May | Submit by end of Mar | 93.8% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Apr | 91.3% |
| Jul | Submit by end of May | 97.2% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Jun | 93.1% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jul | 95.9% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Aug | 88.4% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Sep | 92.2% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Oct | 100% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Cheltenham. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Tree Works / TPO (6 days). Slowest: Advertisement (75 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 210 | 92.9% | 69 d (10 wk) | 23–360 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 165 | 99.4% | 40 d (6 wk) | 0–326 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO | 31 | 96.8% | 6 d (1 wk) | 0–49 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 28 | 100% | 31 d (4 wk) | 2–177 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions | 14 | 100% | 69 d (10 wk) | 26–175 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 11 | 100% | 75 d (11 wk) | 31–214 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building (low sample) | 3 | 33.3% | 143 d (20 wk) | 34–340 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development (low sample) | 1 | 0% | 36 d (5 wk) | 36–36 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 25 |
100%
|
29d (~4wk) | → February | — |
| February | 10 |
100%
|
130d (~19wk) | → June | 98–254d |
| March | 32 |
93.8%
|
107d (~15wk) | → July | 53–326d |
| April | 46 |
91.3%
|
53d (~8wk) | → June | 31–162d |
| May | 36 |
97.2%
|
48d (~7wk) | → July | 1–255d |
| June | 29 |
93.1%
|
63d (~9wk) | → August | — |
| July | 49 |
95.9%
|
71d (~10wk) | → September | 38–198d |
| August | 69 |
88.4%
|
42d (~6wk) | → September | — |
| September | 64 |
92.2%
|
38d (~5wk) | → October | — |
| October | 53 |
100%
|
18d (~3wk) | → November | — |
| November | 35 |
97.1%
|
65d (~9wk) | → January | 47–209d |
| December | 51 |
100%
|
59d (~8wk) | → February | 9–312d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 91 | 98.9% | 53 |
| Tuesday | 114 | 93.9% | 55 |
| Wednesday | 95 | 93.7% | 55 |
| Thursday | 97 | 97.9% | 47 |
| Friday | 100 | 93% | 49 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,135 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.