🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,135 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Canterbury
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 77 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 84.8% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 87.3% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 97% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 100% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 83.3% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 96.3% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 96.5% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 95.6% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 98.6% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 98.1% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 94.3% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 100% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Canterbury. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Tree Works / TPO (34 days). Slowest: Full / Major (83 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 374 | 92.2% | 83 d (12 wk) | 5–351 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 200 | 99% | 53 d (8 wk) | 4–330 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO | 46 | 100% | 34 d (5 wk) | 0–80 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 27 | 100% | 51 d (7 wk) | 8–301 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 18 | 83.3% | 72 d (10 wk) | 21–191 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions | 13 | 100% | 81 d (12 wk) | 38–170 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building (low sample) | 7 | 100% | 44 d (6 wk) | 36–68 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 13 |
100%
|
42d (~6wk) | → February | 2–154d |
| February | 18 |
83.3%
|
155d (~22wk) | → July | 8–351d |
| March | 54 |
96.3%
|
101d (~14wk) | → June | 53–301d |
| April | 85 |
96.5%
|
58d (~8wk) | → June | 25–149d |
| May | 68 |
95.6%
|
60d (~9wk) | → July | 5–132d |
| June | 72 |
98.6%
|
63d (~9wk) | → August | 4–231d |
| July | 104 |
98.1%
|
46d (~7wk) | → September | 1–192d |
| August | 106 |
94.3%
|
62d (~9wk) | → October | 1–291d |
| September | 64 |
100%
|
54d (~8wk) | → November | — |
| October | 33 |
84.8%
|
154d (~22wk) | → March | 7–351d |
| November | 63 |
87.3%
|
86d (~12wk) | → February | 42–344d |
| December | 67 |
97%
|
59d (~8wk) | → February | 28–291d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 159 | 94.3% | 84 |
| Tuesday | 156 | 96.8% | 81 |
| Wednesday | 147 | 95.9% | 85 |
| Thursday | 153 | 94.8% | 93 |
| Friday | 137 | 94.2% | 74 |
| Saturday | 6 | 100% | 38 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,135 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.