🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 25,848 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Brent
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 73 days (~2 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Nov | 80.5% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Dec | 75.2% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Jan | 70.6% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Feb | 69.8% |
| May | Submit by end of Mar | 27.3% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Apr | — |
| Jul | Submit by end of May | 50% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Jun | 100% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Aug | 100% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Sep | 88.9% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Oct | 93.3% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Brent. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Prior Approval (23 days). Slowest: Conservation Area (71 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 215 | 65.6% | 61 d (9 wk) | 29–306 d | Filter ▸ |
| Householder | 179 | 83.8% | 62 d (9 wk) | 25–167 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development | 98 | 77.6% | 46 d (7 wk) | 11–80 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval | 57 | 57.9% | 23 d (3 wk) | 2–55 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building | 12 | 16.7% | 56 d (8 wk) | 29–71 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area | 11 | 100% | 71 d (10 wk) | 49–122 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 11 | 81.8% | 55 d (8 wk) | 38–81 d | Filter ▸ |
| Outline (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 77 d (11 wk) | 77–77 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 180 |
70.6%
|
47d (~7wk) | → March | 3–86d |
| February | 53 |
69.8%
|
38d (~5wk) | → March | 4–56d |
| March | 11 |
27.3%
|
7d (~1wk) | → March | 2–18d |
| August | 3 |
100%
|
187d (~27wk) | → February | 167–211d |
| September | 9 |
88.9%
|
140d (~20wk) | → February | 121–178d |
| October | 30 |
93.3%
|
105d (~15wk) | → February | 68–165d |
| November | 159 |
80.5%
|
61d (~9wk) | → January | 32–140d |
| December | 206 |
75.2%
|
54d (~8wk) | → February | 12–105d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 157 | 75.8% | 68 |
| Tuesday | 152 | 78.3% | 67 |
| Wednesday | 108 | 80.6% | 55 |
| Thursday | 99 | 70.7% | 57 |
| Friday | 139 | 69.1% | 63 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
25,848 dated decisions where both received_date and decision_type are known. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.