🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,135 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Armagh Banbridge Craigavon
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 176 days (~6 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Jul | 100% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Aug | 100% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Sep | 83.3% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Oct | 100% |
| May | Submit by end of Nov | 86.4% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Dec | 88.9% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Jan | 100% |
| Aug | Submit by end of Feb | 100% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Mar | 100% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Apr | 94.1% |
| Nov | Submit by end of May | 100% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Jun | 91.7% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Armagh Banbridge Craigavon. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Amendment / NMA (69 days). Slowest: Advertisement (158 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 122 | 98.4% | 145 d (21 wk) | 38–325 d | Filter ▸ |
| Amendment / NMA | 13 | 84.6% | 69 d (10 wk) | 8–230 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 9 | 88.9% | 158 d (23 wk) | 68–266 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions (low sample) | 2 | 0% | 121 d (17 wk) | 51–190 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB (low sample) | 2 | 100% | 227 d (32 wk) | 221–232 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 19 |
100%
|
140d (~20wk) | → June | 8–226d |
| February | 20 |
100%
|
116d (~17wk) | → June | 87–192d |
| March | 20 |
100%
|
123d (~18wk) | → July | 49–308d |
| April | 17 |
94.1%
|
126d (~18wk) | → August | 44–303d |
| May | 28 |
100%
|
108d (~15wk) | → September | 6–254d |
| June | 12 |
91.7%
|
107d (~15wk) | → October | 6–232d |
| July | 7 |
100%
|
183d (~26wk) | → January | 19–307d |
| August | 5 |
100%
|
174d (~25wk) | → February | 139–281d |
| September | 12 |
83.3%
|
213d (~30wk) (outlier) | → April | 109–276d |
| October | 28 |
100%
|
158d (~23wk) | → March | 75–333d |
| November | 22 |
86.4%
|
170d (~24wk) | → May | 50–312d |
| December | 18 |
88.9%
|
188d (~27wk) | → June | 36–270d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 74 | 98.6% | 191 |
| Tuesday | 71 | 95.8% | 190 |
| Wednesday | 49 | 98% | 168 |
| Thursday | 68 | 97.1% | 208 |
| Friday | 63 | 95.2% | 180 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,135 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.