🗓 Submission Timing Intelligence
When is the best month — and weekday — to submit your planning application? Real approval-rate + decision-speed data from 144,135 dated decisions across UK LPAs.
📊 Aberdeenshire
Months below refer to when you submit, not when the decision lands. Each application is bucketed by its received_date month — but the approval rate measures the final outcome, whenever it landed (60-90 days later typically). The lag is already baked into the signal: "submit in December = 100% approval" already accounts for the fact that those decisions arrive in Feb/March. The month-by-month table below shows the lag explicitly so you can see the full cycle.
🎯 Inverse view — "I want a decision in [month], when do I submit?"
Based on this LPA's typical decision-lag of 77 days (~3 months), the table below shows when to submit if you want your decision to land in a specific month.
| If you want a decision in... | Submit by (approx.) | That submit month's approval rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | Submit by end of Oct | 94.9% |
| Feb | Submit by end of Nov | 93.8% |
| Mar | Submit by end of Dec | 96.7% |
| Apr | Submit by end of Jan | 94.6% |
| May | Submit by end of Feb | 92.5% |
| Jun | Submit by end of Mar | 91.3% |
| Jul | Submit by end of Apr | 100% |
| Aug | Submit by end of May | 94.6% |
| Sep | Submit by end of Jun | 96.2% |
| Oct | Submit by end of Jul | 96.5% |
| Nov | Submit by end of Aug | 99% |
| Dec | Submit by end of Sep | 98.8% |
Inverse calculation is approximate — actual decision time varies (range typically ±30 days). Use the Decision Time Predictor for tighter forecasts.
⏱ Decision speed by application type
How long different application types actually take at Aberdeenshire. Householder apps are statutorily 8 weeks; full/major are 13 weeks — but the real numbers usually drift. This is what the data says, not what the statute says.
→ Fastest: Tree Works / TPO (40 days). Slowest: Discharge Conditions (106 days).
| Application type | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days | Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full / Major | 562 | 96.6% | 96 d (14 wk) | 26–356 d | Filter ▸ |
| Tree Works / TPO | 50 | 94% | 40 d (6 wk) | 4–140 d | Filter ▸ |
| Heritage / LB | 45 | 93.3% | 85 d (12 wk) | 37–307 d | Filter ▸ |
| Advertisement | 22 | 100% | 62 d (9 wk) | 35–98 d | Filter ▸ |
| Discharge Conditions | 16 | 100% | 106 d (15 wk) | 54–250 d | Filter ▸ |
| Prior Approval (low sample) | 4 | 75% | 36 d (5 wk) | 27–58 d | Filter ▸ |
| Listed Building (low sample) | 3 | 33.3% | 148 d (21 wk) | 42–231 d | Filter ▸ |
| Conservation Area (low sample) | 3 | 100% | 32 d (5 wk) | 31–32 d | Filter ▸ |
| Lawful Development (low sample) | 1 | 100% | 41 d (6 wk) | 41–41 d | Filter ▸ |
📅 Month-by-month breakdown — full submit→decide cycle
Each row shows the complete journey for applications received in that month: how long they took, when the decision actually landed, and what % were approved. The approval rate already accounts for everything that happens between submission and decision — the lag is part of the signal.
| Submit month | Decisions | Approval rate | Median lag | Decision typically lands in | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 56 |
94.6%
|
79d (~11wk) | → April | 11–312d |
| February | 53 |
92.5%
|
88d (~13wk) | → May | 21–238d |
| March | 46 |
91.3%
|
127d (~18wk) | → July | 2–319d |
| April | 27 |
100%
|
158d (~23wk) | → September | 91–356d |
| May | 74 |
94.6%
|
108d (~15wk) | → September | 25–304d |
| June | 105 |
96.2%
|
71d (~10wk) | → August | 21–280d |
| July | 113 |
96.5%
|
59d (~8wk) | → September | 7–244d |
| August | 96 |
99%
|
79d (~11wk) | → November | 5–236d |
| September | 85 |
98.8%
|
70d (~10wk) | → November | 4–211d |
| October | 59 |
94.9%
|
92d (~13wk) | → January | 16–343d |
| November | 81 |
93.8%
|
73d (~10wk) | → January | — |
| December | 60 |
96.7%
|
77d (~11wk) | → March | 7–330d |
Read across each row: submit in [month] → wait [median lag] → decision lands in [target month] → outcome [approval rate]. The approval rate is the final outcome of the whole cycle, not a snapshot.
🗓 Day-of-week patterns
| Day received | Decisions | Approval rate | Avg days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 183 | 94% | 101 |
| Tuesday | 182 | 94.5% | 95 |
| Wednesday | 187 | 95.2% | 98 |
| Thursday | 164 | 96.3% | 116 |
| Friday | 167 | 94.6% | 94 |
📊 Data sources & freshness
Timing is a tactical edge, not strategic justification. Use alongside the constraint check + pattern fingerprint to make the case strong on substance, then time it to land well.
- planning_applications.received_date (updated Daily ingest)
144,135 dated decisions where a submission date and a decision are both known. The submission date is received_date, falling back to validated_date — many council portals publish only the validated date, and the statutory clock runs from it. Approval = approved/granted/permit. Sample size gating: months with fewer than 8 decisions excluded from best/worst recommendation. - Day-of-week patterns
Reflects when applicants choose to submit, which may correlate with applicant type (Monday = professional consultants; Friday = end-of-week DIY submissions). Causality is correlative not causal. - Decision-time outliers
Months showing 200+ day averages are flagged — they reflect older PINS-appeal-derived rows where determinations stretched over many months. Read the Jan/Feb/Nov/Dec numbers (largest samples) as the reliable benchmark.